Archive for category Future Web

Top 10 technologies and trends for 2010

Gartner recently released their “Top 10 technologies and trends” for the coming year (2010).

Gartner defined a strategic technology as one with the potential for significant impact — meaning it will require substantial financial investment, has a high potential to disrupt the business or puts the organization at risk if it’s late to adopt — in the next three years.

No surprise - Cloud Computing tops the list, whats interesting is in that delivering the list at the Gartner Symposium, David Cearley says “Cloud computing is one of the most hyped terms in the industry right now,” and went on to say “In many ways it’s overhyped. In the next 12-18 months, it’s going to crash into the trough of disillusionment. But we do think cloud computing is going to be a very important long-term phenomena.”

Here is the complete list for 2010 and for interest sake I have also included Gartners previous lists of the Top 10 technologies and trends for 2009 and 2008;

2010
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1210613

  1. Cloud Computing
  2. Advanced Analytics
  3. Client Computing
  4. IT for Green
  5. Reshaping the Data Center
  6. Social Computing
  7. Security – Activity Monitoring
  8. Flash Memory
  9. Virtualization for Availability
  10. Mobile Applications

2009
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=777212

  1. Virtualization
  2. Cloud Computing
  3. Servers — Beyond Blades
  4. Web-Oriented Architectures
  5. Enterprise Mashups
  6. Specialized Systems
  7. Social Software and Social Networking
  8. Unified Communications
  9. Business Intelligence
  10. Green IT

2008
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=530109

  1. Green IT
  2. Unified Communications
  3. Business Process Modeling
  4. Metadata Management
  5. Virtualization 2.0
  6. Mashup & Composite Apps
  7. Web Platform & WOA
  8. Computing Fabric
  9. Real World Web
  10. Social Software

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The Recession is Over - But the Inter World Trouble is Only Beginning For Second Life

Plummeting real-estate prices, fears of infrastructure collapse, theft from the stock exchange and a run on Ginko Financial with customers queuing at the bank for almost a week demanding their money back. Thats the challenge Second Life (the online virtual world) faced a year ago. Ginko Financial later collapsed and was confirmed to be a Ponzi scheme when the avatars could get no more money from the bank and Linden Labs (The creators of Second Life) intervened liquidating the bank and banning banks from their world. They also used their own version of a stimulus package to get their economy going again.



Second Life



A year on and the in-world (virtual) recession in Second Life would seem to be well and truly over with GDP growth of 94% over the same period a year earlier and a real world economy worth $50 Million a month. You see many residents (as the users of Second Life are called) buy and sell property, products and services in Second Life for Linden Dollars L$ - which have a real world exchange rate (currently about L$280 / US$1). Some virtual merchants have made millions of US dollars designing and selling their virtual merchandise to residents.

No surprise then that the lines between what in essence is a game, and the real world have become very blurred when there is so much money at stake. Recently 2 of Second Lifes merchants Shannon Grie and Kevin Alderman have launched a legal case against Second Life in a very real life court (A US District Court in the Northern District of California).



Grie and Alderman (A.K.A. Munchflower Zaius and Stroker Serpentine in second life) claim that Linden Labs failed to protect them when Linden didn’t do enough to stop other residents from pirating their merchandise, which includes a line of gothic boutique clothing and sex-themed products which enable residents to engage in virtual sex.



Lets hope the Justice hearing the case has either a great sense of humour or a vivid imagination :)

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Why the Irish Government needs an IT Strategy

Why the Irish Government needs an IT Strategy

Like so many others, inefficiencies in government and a lack of transparency have long been a source of minor annoyance to me. More recently this “minor annoyance” has become a significant source of frustration as I now feel that the lack of transparency and prompt action by the Irish Government is hitting me in the pocket in the form of extra taxes and levies every which way I turn. People and businesses everywhere have had to adjust sharply to the current economic reality and my question is, why hasn’t the Irish Government done this also?

There is limited value in me commenting broadly on Public Sector Reform, however I believe I can comment with some knowledge on the situation with government IT. Recently I have been in discussion with a couple of organisations who have expressed interest in collaborating on an Open Government initiative that I am trying to get underway, (more on that over the coming weeks…) a substantial part of this initiative involves taking public information and transforming it so as the data provides transparency and insight into the business of government for the general public.

While researching (digging through Government, Local Authority and State Body websites, publications, annual reports, etc) it became very clear to me that we have very little joined-up thinking when it comes to government technology. My initial purpose was to find most of the major data-sources available to the public, but I came up entirely empty handed. The sad truth is that there is virtually no useful government data made available to the public in any meaningful format.

While I was trying to figure out why we had a complete lack of useful information available from our public sector two very interesting government reports were published;

  1. Technology Actions to Support the Smart Economy
  2. Report of the Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes

Having read these two reports it struck me that many of the issues faced by Government IT are likely to be as a result of fragmented strategy and a lack of co-ordination between institutions. I began to feel that there was a glimmer of hope resulting from these two reports until I read back over a number of previous reports published by the Irish Government. In particular a report titled “Progress Implementing the Information Society” dated July 1999. This 1999 report is well worth dusting off on its 10th birthday and interestingly progress has been so poor, that this report could easily be re-dated and very few people would notice that it was in fact 10 years old.

I decided to dig a little deeper and signed up to www.etenders.gov.ie to get more insight into the procurement practices of government technology products and services and what I discovered was to say the least disappointing. From E-Tenders there were three points that struck me;

  1. The extraordinary level of obstacles that were put in the way of anyone who was interested in tendering for projects
  2. The duplication of services each individual government entity was procuring
  3. The seemingly complete lack of strategy and standards

In many cases the the “Conditions for Participation” section was in fact much longer than the “Description of the goods or services required” and many of these conditions ruled out any company that wasn’t many years old, this point alone in my view stops us getting value for money as it doesn’t allow many young and agile companies from participating in government contracts.

One R.F.T. (request for tender) in particular caught my attention (Tourism Ireland Imagery Website ). As far as I can make out, Tourism Ireland are looking to add a feature to their website to store and display photos. Sounds simple enough and a good idea (why wasn’t this part of the original design?), they go on to specify that “the contract would be expected to cost between €50K and €206K”. Two points I thought here;

  1. Why shoot yourself in the foot by telling everyone how much you are willing to spend
  2. Why not use a service like Flickr? Flickr is good enough for the official White House photo stream and at time of writing, hosts more than 3.7 billion images. It also has an API (Application Programming Interface) that would enable Tourism Ireland (Discover Ireland) to do pretty much anything they want to do with all their photos. On top of this there is a thriving community on Flickr that could be used to raise awareness of Ireland as a destination of choice for tourists. The cost? $24.95 per year, while I am not a mathematician, this sounds like a saving of somewhere between €50K and €206K.

Moving forward;

“The Taoiseach announced on 7th May 2008 that responsibility for eGovernment was to be consolidated in the Department of Finance. Responsibility for the delivery of individual eGovernment projects will remain the responsibility of individual Departments and Offices. This new arrangement will ensure that there is strong, coordinated leadership from the Centre, with regular communication between the Department of Finance and the various Departments, Offices and Agencies with responsibility for various projects.”

What exactly does this mean? Personally I think this is flawed thinking and a major throwback to the daft practices of the 1980’s and 90’s where corporates put Finance in charge of technology, added to this the Department of Finance is hardly a shining light of progression and transparency, just take a look at their website, not the most friendly site in the world and much of the content eg. the FAQ section hasn’t been updated since 2003.

In the “Report of the Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes” Colm McCarthy suggests the introduction of an IT Advisory Group comprising senior independent ICT practitioners from medium-large companies in Ireland to advise their counterparts in the civil service, meanwhile in the “Technology Actions to Support the Smart Economy” report Barry McSweeney subtly suggests the appointment of a government C.T.O.

My view is that a combination of the two suggestions from McCarthy & McSweeney could be just what we need. In a sense what we need is a Department of Technology or a Government IT Department. The C.T.O. in charge of this department should be accountable to a committee comprised of senior industry peers, a minister and a senior civil servant and the position should be open for re-appointment every three years (not a civil service job for life, this rotation could be used to ensure the best and brightest was always in charge). The new Irish Government IT Department should take under its control all the IT departments and teams from all government departments, local government and state bodies.

Here are just a few areas that should be concentrated on:

Government Websites;

The new Government IT Department should hire a crack team of web developers & project managers and take all of the development of Government Department, Local Authority and Government Body websites in-house. All of this development should be done on Open Source platforms, such as Ruby on Rials or Drupal. These platforms would facilitate rapid development and deployment of world class websites and should also include mandatory features to share information including the provision of RSS and API’s to enable public access to government information. Government Departments and Government Bodies (such as the Central Statistics Office) should be compelled to openly share all available information (except obviously personal and sensitive information) in an accessible and standard format.

This development would save us, the tax payers millions every year while providing increased transparency and access to information. Additionally I know many developers and entrepreneurs who could use this information in various projects and mash-ups (some existing and some yet to be created).

Government Network;

Many people don’t realise it but the Irish Government owns a very significant fibre optic network in Ireland. Despite this it seems that each government department, independently tenders out its connectivity requirements to external providers. If the government were to leverage this network and utilise it for all its own connectivity requirements they could significantly improve performance and save a very significant amount of money. Again, doing this would require a centralised approach.

Cloud Computing Adoption;

While there has been much mention of Cloud Computing in government circles, there has been (to my knowledge) no actual significant take-up of Cloud Computing Services. Each Government Department, Local Authority and Government Body has its own email and file storage servers. I would suggest that as a matter of urgency we should have a policy decision to immediately migrate all of these services to Google Apps. With a public sector comprising of some 370,000 people there is a potential saving of hundreds of millions of Euros to be made here on an annual basis. It is difficult to tell just how many people are employed in Government IT (according to Colm McCarthy’s report it is 1,300 people, but I believe that this number is vastly understated), but a vast proportion of them I believe are tied up in keeping email and file servers going. In addition, cloud computing is also a greener method of providing these services.

In many ways, what I have mentioned here may only be touching the surface. However, I believe if our government is serious about re-invigorating our economy on the basis of Ireland becoming a global digital hub, it must first get its own house in order. The few things I have mentioned here should not be difficult to implement and while saving us hundreds of millions of euros could also show the world that we are serious about becoming a knowledge economy.

If you have any comments on this topic or if Open Government is of interest to you, please fill in the comment box below - I would love to hear from you.

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A new way of working

In my last post I outlined the direction that the technology behind cloud computing is heading.  This time I would like to talk briefly about a few of the more down to earth changes that the emergence of cloud computing will have and the social impact that will result.

I believe that we are at the precipice of a whole new way of working.  Traditional thinking suggests that once we have completed our education we go out and get a job. For my parent’s generation the objective was to secure a job for life, me and my generation took a different take on that and a good deal of people my age change jobs on average every three to five years.  I think that a good deal of the next generation will not necessarily hold down regular jobs in the same way that we do today.

Before I dive right into justifying this argument consider a few changes that have happened in the past and think about how they might help us predict what is going to happen in the future.

As the standard (and cost) of living increased in Western Europe and North America the cost of manufacturing spiralled and many companies relocated labour intensive / low margin operations to Asian countries, principally China. These companies typically continued their design and research & development at their headquarters.

More recently there was a huge rush for companies to engage B.P.O.’s (Business Process Outsourcers) to offload some of the non-core processes that were typically carried out in-house.  Typically the B.P.O.’s were located in India and did the work at a fraction of the cost.  While there is still significant debate over the success of many B.P.O. initiatives, the reality is that there are nearly two million people employed in India today in the industry.  In fact the B.P.O. industry in India is so successful that skills shortages, 20% annual wage inflation and skyrocketing real estate & infrastructure costs are threatening the competitiveness of India as a destination of choice for outsourcing.  Considering that the companies that provide these services must also charge a margin on the services the cost justification for traditional B.P.O. is diminishing fast.

I can’t remember who coined the expression “we don’t go to work anymore - we just work”, but it wraps up nicely the way I see things moving. Remote working has been on the table for several years but it has been fraught with difficulties, not least of which has been connectivity and security. Consider the impact cloud computing has on this, because the platforms and software are now on the cloud and accessible over the internet it is possible for anyone with a broadband connection to access their systems with the same performance that they would have in the office.

The fact that we are currently in a global recession and unemployment has risen sharply doesn’t necessarily mean that companies don’t have plenty of tasks and projects they want to undertake - it is probably more down to restrictive budgets and commitment avoidance (not wanting to commit to employment contracts).  There are many people who have come out of traditional employment are now freelancing and doing task based assignments for companies all over the world.

Some of the facilitators behind this are companies like ODesk, Elance and Guru.  These companies provide a marketplace for companies who need to get projects done, and people with the skills to undertake the project work come to bid on the assignments.  The geographical limits of traditional employment are no longer a factor with this approach.

While these sites currently cater primarily for the IT market, I think it is only a matter of time before there is much broader adoption of this model in other sectors.

Starting a small business has typically had a number of barriers to entry. The biggest barrier has typically been the range of skills needed to take a good idea and turn it into a tangible product or service. Typically most people starting out in business can’t afford to hire all the skills / buy all the equipment needed to compete with established players.  Cloud computing, PaaS (platform as a service) and WaaS (workforce as a service) have changed this.  Say for example I wanted setup a business to publish a magazine - what would I need?

Editors, Journalists, Copywriters, Photographers, Printers, Marketers, IT Staff, Accountants, Premises, Printing Presses, Distribution & Warehousing, Servers etc, etc……

I would probably do a little a little mental arithmetic and give up.

However, with the introduction of all the services I can now get on the web, and the cloud, I can now setup my servers on Amazon AWS, buy my images from Getty Images, Hire my editors, journalists and copywriters on ODesk, get my IT support from Guru and get MagCloud to print and deliver my magazines.  The same type of scenario is also becoming a reality if I want to design and manufacture consumer goods, there are services coming on stream everyday where providers will design and manufacture nearly anything for you.

From an individuals standpoint there are immense opportunities to become part of many of these service offerings, or for the entrepreneur the availability of skills, talent and services, “on-tap” provides unprecedented opportunities.

I certainly think the future is looking very bright and exciting.

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The Future of Cloud Computing

I have seen a good deal of commentary lately on cloud computing where people (who should be “in the know”) have put forward opinions that cloud computing is hosting by another name.

To put the record straight, yes you can use cloud computing as an alternative means of traditional server or website hosting, but it is so much more than that.  Unlike traditional hosting arrangements cloud computing offers many different layers and opportunities right now, and many new layers and opportunities are either just unfolding or yet to be discovered.

We are all familiar with SaaS (Software as a Service).  Well Cloud Computing readily provides the ability to use the cloud as PaaS (Platform as a Service).  One of the massive benefits of Cloud Computing is the flexible infrastructural platform it provides and the ability to change computing resource from a capital intensive / skills intensive investment into a utility.  Just like your electricity or gas supply, plug in and pay for as much or little as you use.

There are a number of industry heavy-weights investing heavily right now in cloud computing, including Amazon, IBM, Google, HP, Dell, Microsoft & Others.  All of these providers currently have their efforts concentrated on providing standalone public clouds.  Meanwhile VM Ware, and Red Hat are currently offering customers the ability to build private cloud computing platforms.

My view is that cloud computing platforms will soon reach a tipping point where it will no longer be at the cutting edge but instead will be the de-facto mechanism used for providing computing resources.  However, in order for this to happen there is one significant hurdle overcome first, that is, the ability for all the public and private clouds to interconnect seamlessly.  Consider it the “Inter-Cloud”.  For a comparison consider the growth of the internet, firstly there were a bunch of private networks that were not connected to each other, then with the emergence of the internet private networks began to connect to the internet using gateways.  Before too long the emergence and broad adoption of standard protocols (TCP/IP) eliminated the requirement for gateways and everything became connected to everything.  Something similar is inevitable for cloud computing and it is probably going to happen sooner than you think.

One technology to watch here is Red Hats MRG.  MRG stands for Messaging Real-Time Grid and is really a wolf in sheep’s clothing.  With technologies like MRG, Cloud Computing Consultants can now offer clients incredible computing power from existing server and desktop inventory by enabling scheduling to local and remote grids, rented cloud capacity and cycle-stealing from desktop PCs.

This is the start of something big, next time I post I will outline some very specific ideas I have on how these changes not only affect the IT industry but are also going to have a dramatic affect on how the world works.

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A glimpse of the future with Google Wave

I highly recomend watching this video of the keynote speech on Google Wave. Its 1 hour, 20 minutes but if you want to see the future of the web take the time.

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