Nowadays there are basically 2 types of OS, desktop and server.

I suppose you make a good point saying that cloud computing is killing the desktop OSs, probably lightweight OS will be all the rage, effectively making domestic computers much like thin clients.
Also the moment people will understand that a fast reliable office computer already exists, it’s called Linux or FreeBSD with OpenOffice on it, is closer than it seemed only a couple of years ago, so that might be a variable in the desktop OSs scene.

On the server side, given the hype that virtualization is getting these days (most of it justified i have to say), maybe we’ll have two types of server OS: host and guest server OS.
The first one geared towards easier management of virtual machines and the second one more similar to current server OSs, maybe even more specialised in running just one thing but really really well. For example we might have a linux distribution that runs tomcat mad fast, or mysql exceptionally well.
A bit what Kurt was talking about when mentioning single purpose tools, single purpose guest-OSs maybe?

Amazon has just released RDS which allows to instantiate databases on the cloud and complete compatibility with MySQL-connected applications, so even though Amazon might be a stop-gap, they like to think they are here to stay and in fairness this last development is really interesting (http://aws.amazon.com/rds/).

Note to LZ, I love FreeBSD and Linux, but I would never compare GIMP to Photoshop : )

KDE 4.3 is a very slick user experience (for Linux, BSD, UNIX, Mac OS/X and now even Windows XP), and on par on high end machines w/ Win 7 ultimate, and on lower end hardware or lesser versions of Win 7 far better. Memory and CPU use are much less than w/ Win7 or XP, and fancy composting effects which had to be dropped from Vista (and which were excluded from Vista since some Microsoft couldn’t deliver w/o regular BSOD). The eye candy and GUI effects from the composting desktop is really, really cool. I love the effect where I alt-tab and all the open windows shrink and scale so I can see not the icon but the actual open window, just in minature (complete with video playback continuing!).

Mainstream Windows software (except that specifically designed by Microsoft to NOT work) runs fine under WINE, and .NET applications can run using the Mono project. Of course, you can also use Lotus Symphony or Open Office we are feature for feature comparable to any recent version of MS Office. KOffice is another options which I haven’t used much, but what I have (esp. their database program–handles

Mozilla software, Google desktop/earth/talk, Eclipse, Adobe Acrobat/Flash, Java, MySQL GUI tools, and Skype all have Linux versions that work just ducky.

There are thousands of titles I can install with a single click (for the price of, oh, wait, it is free), including a huge amount of kids / educational software, and some serious powerful data analysis, statistics, 3D visualization, video and graphic editing (GIMP is everything Adobe Photoshop is except expensive).

You can get better support via the mailing lists than you will ever get from Microsoft (Although a bit quirky–if you post a request for help, you will get 5 or 6 solutions, followed by some good natured banter about who’s solution is best. There is a huge amount of community good will, and people help others freely).

Security and stability are, well they never have been Microsoft’s strong point, dramatically better. I have had to reboot my desktop PC every few months to install kernel upgrades/patches, and don’t recall the last system crash (it happened to me a few years ago, I think). People have been trying to write viruses for Linux for years, and it is just too hard. Since most hackers do it for the kicks and prestige, creating a virus that would work on Linux would be a major coupe. It has nothing to do with everyone using Windows, and everything to do with the fact that you just cannot get a virus to work in Linux/BSD/other UNIX.

Seriously, give it a few day try, and see for yourself.

Try OpenSUSE (Novell) 11.1 w/ KDE in a VM or live CD/DVD and see for yourself. You can get OpenSUSE to run on just about any hardware, and I only have had one peripheral that didn’t work (a very old “Windows” printer–HP, Epson and Lexmark all have Linux drivers, Cannon isn’t as good about it, but most printers and scanners work). I do, however, stick to HP printers and they do have great Linux drivers.

I might consider using Win7 on my laptop, since it is a pain switching between a single display and an external projector w/ Linux (I have always used ThinkPads so I have never had a problem running Linux on them).

As the cost of hardware comes down, and the ability so sync data increases, I think we’ll see the “killing” of the all-purposed computers. OS’s are clumsy when they try to do everything. Devices specially made to do certain tasks are much more efficient. People don’t read books or watch TV at a computer desk for instance.

The new Microsoft Courier device is a great example, and I hope to see more of these single-purposed tools soon.

Thanks for your comments; you raise a number of very valid points. In general terms while writing this I was thinking about the majority of personal users, and your typical knowledge worker. There will indeed be several applications and environments in the desktop space that will probably continue to require a more traditional approach for the reasons you mention (network performance & reliability being top of the list).

Speaking about CAD – I read somewhere that Carl Bass (Autodesk CEO) made reference to research Autodesk were conducting to embrace compute power on the cloud for doing 3-D rendering. He explained that the issues AutoCAD users had, was that they didn’t want to wait overnight for 3-D drawing to be rendered – “they want it now” and that elastic cloud compute resources might come to the rescue. However in the same interview he did say that Autodesk was unlikely in to become a SaaS provider.

There are obviously many challenges facing us on network performance and the need for 100% uptime in a model where everything but the browser is running in the cloud. It might take years to get to the stage where we have robust enough networks to consider this mechanism for critical applications – however I believe it will come in time.
I also agree with you that we are unlikely to see a clean sweep across the Server OS space. For one thing, there is the fact that the majority of people currently in charge of provisioning server applications and resources have significant comfort and experience in the existing technologies, however there will probably come a tipping point when both the functionality and price point of services like Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure and others yet to enter the market will become so compelling that all but the most demanding server apps will be handled by specialists on the cloud (I think the price is compelling right now, but some of the functionality/flexibility is still absent). Once this happens I think the vendors in question will probably employ a whole bunch of specialist OSes on a function by function basis.

Another major influencing factor here will be the “Microsoft Effect”. I think Microsoft has, in some areas been asleep at the wheel and several other vendors have been picking away “softly” at their dominant position in a number of areas. However, Microsoft has proven time and time again to be the “King of the Come-Back”. The challenge for Microsoft will be how to replace $15 Billion of revenue (from their Windows stable) when in all likelihood they will need to give away their OS in the future for free. Perhaps this is why the Azure project is seen by Microsoft execs as being so critical.

I think this is going to be an exciting space to watch over the next few years.

Kind regards
Finbarr